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Sub-seasonal Prediction of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2

Weiwei WANG  Song YANG  Tuantuan ZHANG  Qingquan LI  Wei WEI  
【摘要】:This study depicts the sub-seasonal prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset(SCSSMO) and investigates the associated oceanic and atmospheric processes, utilizing the hindcasts of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2). Typically, the SCSSMO is accompanied by an eastward retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH), development of the cross-equatorial flow, and an increase in the east-west sea surface temperature(SST) gradient. These features are favorable for the onset of westerlies and strengthening of convection and precipitation over the South China Sea(SCS). A more vigorous SCSSMO process shows a higher predictability, and vice versa. The NCEP CFSv2 can successfully predict the onset date and evolution of the monsoon about 4 pentads(20 days) in advance(within 1–2 pentads) for more forceful(less vigorous) SCSSMO processes.On the other hand, the climatological SCSSMO that occurs around the 27th pentad can be accurately predicted in one pentad, and the predicted SCSSMO occurs 1–2 pentads earlier than the observed with a weaker intensity at longer leadtimes.Warm SST biases appear over the western equatorial Pacific preceding the SCSSMO. These biases induce a weaker-thanobserved WNPSH as a Gill-type response, leading to weakened low-level easterlies over the SCS and hence an earlier and less vigorous SCSSMO. In addition, after the SCSSMO, remarkable warm biases over the eastern Indian Ocean and the SCS and cold biases over the WNP induce weaker-than-observed westerlies over the SCS, thus also contributing to the less vigorous SCSSMO.

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